Paul Barys' summer outlook - | Chattanooga News, Weather & Sports

Paul Barys' summer outlook

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The summer months are June, July and August. It's the meteorological summer. The National Weather Service puts out outlooks all year long. They are saying we'll be about average... equal chances of being colder than normal or warmer than normal. They're saying the real warm stuff will be in Florida and the cooler stuff will be out along the southern Plains.

As rains goes, more rain along the Gulf Coast and out in the desert Southwest, which is strange. Usually it's very dry, everything is turning around. But for us, they're saying it's going to be pretty much equal chances.

Now this is a computer model, the Climate Forecast System summer temperatures. They're saying we're going to be a little bit above normal coming up. And then the CFS or Climate Forecast System summer rain is giving us a little bit of drier activity. The way things are shaping up in the Pacific Ocean especially, and out in the Atlantic - it's a combination because the oceans are the biggest driver in this climate situation.

I think it's going to be warmer than normal for the summer temperatures across much of the Southeast while off to the north it will be near normal. Then, a little cooler than normal because I think they will see lots of rain - it's going to be very, very wet across much of the Midwest which is great for growing all the crops - the soybeans and the corn.

For us, a little warmer than normal and I think also just a little bit drier than normal. So warmer than normal for us for June, July and August - on the average above normal and then drier than normal.

One thing that's interesting coming up for the winter forecast later on, is El Nino looks like it's going to return. Could be a strong one or at least a moderate El Nino and that could change everything from what we've seen the past few years. We'll have to worry about that at a later time.

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