UPDATE: Lots of hype over one model forecasting snow
Channel 3 Storm Alert Chief Meteorologist Paul Barys: I mentioned at 6pm that there was a computer model that was showing the possibility of snow around February 7 or 8.
Right now it is the only model (and there are many) that is showing this storm for us.
This model will probably flip-flop on a solution as most models do.
I try to stay away from wishcasting. You can hope for it or hope it does not happen, but in either case no one really know this far out.
It is a computer model not a forecast.
The Channel 3 Storm Alert team will keep you updated on any possibility of snow, sleet or freezing rain, as we always do.
Channel 3 Storm Alert Meteorologist David Karnes added: I have been getting LOTS of messages about a possible 10-12" snow-ma-geddon coming next week. The hype was generated by one particular run of the European model suggesting so.
I would caution everyone to not put too much (if any) stock in a forecast of that magnitude this far out. Looking at the GFS long range (another model), it is showing that system bringing a lot of rain to the area midweek with more heavy rain next Saturday night / Sunday morning followed by snow Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, that is NOT my forecast, just another version of possibilities.
What I would take away is never count on one model. If you look at one look at others, and you will usually get a good composite picture of what is going on. Right now, I would not go further than we MAY have a weather system moving through next week that looks like it will bring some widespread precipitation, POSSIBLY some snow on the tail end of it Sunday.
Obviously, as the event gets closer we will know more, but always look with a skeptical eye at any model that goes that far outside the norm. That doesn't mean it's wrong, it just means don't jump on board an anomaly when you see it.
When I lived in Florida, we would always look at the forecast path of a hurricane, and one thing we always knew was that 3 or 4 days out the last place the storm would actually hit would be a location that was in the direct path on the current forecast. That is to say, it always changed the closer to landfall you were.
It is the same with this potential event. We are so far out, right now, I would expect the actual event will be markedly different than what the models are showing right now.
I hope that helps put some perspective on the hype.
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